Monday 15 December 2014

Fall of Oil-Only Fear Can Make us Slip

There was great noise regarding environmental pollution and we were made to think that our earth is going to die unless we reduce our excessive consumption pattern. Parallel ly there were growing concern regarding whether we had reached “Peak oil” and whether looming oil shortage would distort the rhythm of our life at earth.  To counter these fears…Sun and Wind came to our rescue…USA started the fight with Shale boom…efficiency of our vehicles were improved…we were making serious dedicated efforts to reduce our carbon emissions by being more responsible in energy consumption.  These were just the steps that should have been put forward and we did just that and these were actually working to the very best of our luck.

The most important factor responsible for driving the growth of material economy is the intangible one and that is…confidence, confidence of producers and Consumers that things will be under control. It is this confidence that will prompt producers to make investments for new productions and consumers to spend. At macro level, it becomes a Chicken-Egg riddle where consumer will be able to spend only if they have money and income due to rising employment levels prompted by new investments by producers and producers will invest when they are optimistic about consumer demand. And this is where this economic growth equation becomes very complex…everybody has his own version of economic theory. Some puts weight on making efforts to increase the consumption levels by giving incentives to consumers like cheap money and credit (Quantitative easing by US Fed)  thus raising production and employment but it backfires when consumption rise beyond optimal levels and future consumption is dragged into present…and any minor shock or fear ( Like Housing sector in USA, which fell like a pack of cards out of fear) can create ripple effects by pulling economy quickly down when people stop excessive consumption and demise of one particular sector spreads to other sectors of economy.

And some vote for Governments to tax the enablers of the economy to the brink and distribute the same to laggards so as to raise the demand. Some brilliant Governments plan to build Pyramids which they think will provide employment, create demand for cement and steel but these type of brilliant plans will only raise inflation levels as we witnessed here in india as Government can better use the resources to build warehouses to reduce agriculture wastage and this not only provides employment but also raises production (by reducing wastage).

Recession always is a phenomenon of misallocation of resources and basically a stage where economic forces correct that misallocation by directing the flow of investments to sectors which were undercapitalized and more fundamental.

Oil prices have fallen below $60 and this should have been welcomed at least by consuming economies but again we are being made to fear that falling oil is an indicator of falling demand due to slowdown in the global economies. First oil is not falling due to slowing down of global economies…it is the result of whole gamut of forces from shale oil, renewable energy growth, fuel efficient vehicles to political and economic forces fighting for market share.

OPEC has decided to not to cut the production to maintain its market share and is ready for more decline in oil prices as this would mean death knell for USA Shale Gas explorers as their cost of production is around $ 70-75 and many deep oil field around the globe can’t maintain their production at such a low prices. So shutting down of them will again raise the prices for OPEC. This may be a smart move but global energy sector is now much more complex as energy now covers more comprehensive resources like Solar, wind, Bio etc. solar can still compete with Oil even at $60 as we can plan input costs (which are bare minimum as Graceful Sun is free) with greatest surety and enter into long term contracts as there is mandate all over the globe to reduce carbon footprints.

USA can, at a certain level, in order to save its shale sector put sanctions on oil import by controlling the quantity of oil import or by levying import duties. Also this fall in oil prices may be a ploy to sideline Russia (oil exports are major revenue source of Russia) and ISIS.

Renewable sources are going to further dent the might of conventional fossil fuels with the advent of more powerful and cheap batteries. Huge research is underway on batteries which is going to change the game for Sun and wind.
Era of high oil prices were mainly due to misalignment of production resources in few hands and that balance is now going to settle in more equitable way. It is true that some of big investment plans for oil sector will now be shelved but that is very natural and that money will now flow into more productive use may be into Water preservation or batteries.

If Governments pass on the fall in oil prices to consumers then that will save much of their money and will leave them with more money…which is more consumption power or more savings. Unlike Indian Government which used the opportunity in raising the excise duty and thus aggregated around 10000 cr to make up for huge budgeted deficit. But at least we hope that they won’t use this money for building Pyramids.

So I don’t see any negative in this fall in oil prices unless fear grapples us and we plan to stop buying that beautiful Rose for our wives from that little girl at the corner of our street.

Friday 12 December 2014

Transcorp International Ltd- Exchange your Money with It...

Transcorp international ltd belongs to TCI group (Transport corporation of india) which is one of india’s largest logistics company, transporting almost 2.5% of Indian GDP. Transcorp is into Money exchange, inward remittance, tour and travel, real estate and taxi hire business. Money exchange and inward remittance forms the major chunk of the business.  I am also holding Thomas cook from 100/- which is also into same business but with much larger scale.

Tourism sector is going to witness huge growth in india due to inherent geographical and cultural dividend. Development of infrastructure will provide the necessary nutrition for the growth. Same is the case for inward remittance business which deals with remittance of money into india from our NRI brothers. Both these are under the strict control of Govt and RBI and the company has to follow strict compliances and audits. Hence entry barriers to this business are fairly high.

At CMP of 42/- Transcorp is available at a market cap of around 20 cr. But in 2010 it revalued its land holdings to 26 crore which were acquired at the cost of 3 crore and then it transfer this real estate holdings into a separate subsidiary company created for this purpose named Transcorp estate private ltd. I cant get much information regarding its real estate business at present, but we can assume that the same land will be valued around 30 cr now.

It is also having a cash holding of around 8 cr as per latest results. It is also having shares of leading companies like TCS, RIL, Axis bank, Biocon etc at a cost of Rs. 26 lac but I have done the calculations and market value of these is around 1.5 cr at today’s prices of these shares. We add all these and we get 30+8+1.5=39.5 around 40 cr which is double of current market price.

Company currently earns around 3 cr yearly net profit, its net worth is around 40 cr which makes return on equity of only 7.5%. The same point was mentioned in one study also but there is one catch-its networth of 40 cr is inclusive of revaluation reserve of around 23 cr which leaves real equity of around 17 cr and that makes ROE to 20% which is good. Even if I give this 3 cr a PE valuation of 10…it will make total valuation of the company to 40+30=70 cr which is more than thrice the current market valuation.

Although I feel the scope for EPS growth is huge due to scalability of its business which can grow exponentially with the growth of Indian economy. It has also created another subsidiary with the name of Ritco tours and Travels which caters to tour and travel sector. It was created by it to focus on this growing sector…although it currently derives turnover of around 8-10 cr but It is profitable. I can’t get much details about its real estate and travel business but creation of subsidiaries points towards something big on the part of management.

It is a consistent dividend player and yield at current market price is 2%. Corporate governance standards are fairly high as company has given detailed information regarding its subsidiaries in its annual reports.


Good buy at Cmp of 42/- 

Update 13/05/2016: Transcorp has approved the splitting of shares from FV of 10 to FV of 2. So with this, the recommended price as on 12/12/14 becomes 8/-


(Views are personal and should not be taken as a recommendation for buy or sell a stock. Stock markets are inherently risky so kindly do your Due Diligence before investing)

Thursday 11 December 2014

E commerce-Beyond Portals and Logistics ...Companies Covered--Rupa & Co., Borosil Glass works Ltd, Redington India, Future Retail

I am always of the view that sometimes user of a product or service derives more profits/business than producer of that product or service-just like pharma sector where many companies invest huge sums of money and time for developing a new medicine or product. Only one or two of those will succeed. But a hospital can harness their success for its benefit much better and longer than them. It doesn’t matter for a hospital, who invented the medicine…it can simply use the same irrespective of the producer. The risk of production is only for the producer.

I can see the same thing happening with Indian E-commerce sector. Biggest beneficiaries of e commerce in india will not be retail portles like flipkart or logistics companies-as is perceived by the market these days. Entry barriers to ecommerce portal and logistics business are low. Portals or logistics companies aren’t offering something different from others …everyone is offering the same. There is no product differentiation…we can and will see more such online portals and logistic companies.  We picked Gati when it was at 30/-…now it is around 300/- . But I still feel market-in its mad run for logistic companies-is ignoring those who can turn out to be bigger beneficiaries of e commerce evolution in india. These are those  consumer product based companies who are unable to reach the every possible consumer due to high cost of distribution in india.

There are many local or regional consumer product brands in india which are offering products of quality on par with global or Indian multinationals…but they are unable to reach scale due to massive distribution clout of these big corporate houses which these small companies can’t afford. Also sometimes it is not competition but sheer cost of distribution that keeps some companies to stay away from some markets. I think these companies can enjoy huge success if they can focus on transforming their business and marketing model. Cost of real estate and dedicated transportation are the biggest hurdles in formulating a viable distribution path. Like cost of real estate in organized retail is around 15% in india as compared to around 7% of western countries. In india a truck normally covers a distance of around 250 km per day at the rate of 20 km per hour which is 500-600 km per day and 60 km per hour in developed world. E commerce with no need of high cost prime location real estate and scattered transportation can eliminate both these.

We’ll study some companies within this framework, however these are not selected purely on e commerce viability model but mainly on their inherent business strength...which will be further sharpened by e commerce.

Rupa & Co. it is one of biggest innerwear company of india competing with Jockey who has taught Indian that not everything is for showing, comfort and personal style is equally relevant when it comes to innerwears. Although Rupa (company is not named after a girl’s name, but “Rupa” is “silver” in Bengali) is larger than Jockey in terms of volume but falls behind when it comes to brand recall and high operating margins. It is visible in their stock prices where Page industries (authorized manufacturer/distributor of Jockey in india for last 50 year or so) is available at a PE ratio of 65 where Rupa is at 25. But I feel there is another side of the story. First of all Rupa doesn’t manufacture its products, it gets it done from third party manufacturers or job workers, it just does bleaching and dyeing on its own. It eats away margins.

In 2013-14 Rupa posted 900 cr of turnover and around 70 cr as net profit, whereas Page industries posted turnover of 1173 cr and net profit of 154 cr. But there is one catch. Rupa spent 73 cr for advertising while Page used only 33 cr. Add this 40 cr extra advertising spend to the net profit of the company and difference of net profits of two companies will become smaller-to 110 cr for Rupa and 154 cr for Page. But this ad spend will come down as with establishment of strong brand recall, the need for high ad spend will be lower.

Also Rupa is a mass market player whereas Page is mainly a premium player where margins are better. But Rupa is focusing and investing big on premium portfolio like Macroman, Euro etc and also endorsed Hrithik Roshan as its brand ambassador. But one thing which I feel it has to take care now is the quality of premium brands, so it should focus on in house manufacturing of these brands to better control quality.
Ecommerce will provide another vertical to increase its reach further although Rupa is having almost 100000 retail points as compared to 23000 of Page.

My another convention that brand loyalty for life style products like staple foods like rice is much stronger than sensory products like Cold drinks, Pizza, noodles etc. People normally are more than willing to change their taste and hence product. Like Maggi is the biggest instant noodle brand in india not due to consumer brand loyalty but because consumers are not able to find out better substitute or some new unique taste. This convention holds true for Rupa due to its high brand loyalty which will become stronger with the focus on new premium products.

Rupa appears cheap when compared with Page industries and keeping in view of the strong demand for branded innerwear in india due to huge young population. Also Lovable lingerie which is a much smaller player as compared to Rupa and with lower brand recall is trading at a PE ratio of 40.
Good buy at current price of 225/-

Borosil Glass, Redington India, Future Retail---will be updated soon

(Views are personal and should not be taken as a recommendation for buy or sell a stock. Stock markets are inherently risky so kindly do your Due Diligence before investing)



Sunday 16 November 2014

Godrej Industries Ltd-This Godrej is Fresh like Cinthol

This is another gem from the house of Godrej but is not understood much by market like it does for Godrej Consumer products and Godrej Properties. It is the holding company of Godrej Properties with 60% shareholding and it also holds around 23% shares of Godrej Consumer products.

But its real gem is Godrej Agrovet ltd which is investing big in agriculture related businesses. GIL’s standalone business is chemical which deals primarily in Oleo chemicals like fatty acids, fatty alcohol, Glycerin and surfactants . These are chemicals derived from plant and animal fats. GIL was the first in india to launch animal fat free soap in india in 1918, we know it by the name of Cinthol launched in 1952. It is also holding prime land of 34 acre in area around its registered office in Vikhroli, Mumbai , which it is developing with Godrej Properties  and its share of profit will be 40% (actually it will get around 76%, as it is holding 60% in Godrej Properties also) .

Godrej Group as a whole holds huge land parcels in Vikhroli, which houses the fctories of the group manufacturing everything from soaps, chemicals, locks and furniture etc. No body knows how much land there is owned by Godrej group but estimates are for 2500-8000 acres of lands and this is real big. Even their chairman, Mr Adi Godrej states that unless political and regulatory issues are solved they can't number a figure. However they plan to develop some 1500 acres . As per some old estimates, this land is valued around 70000-90000 cr and on the same lines,  value of 34 acre land is around 1500 crores (although after development it will bring in much more to GIL).

Now we come to main course and it is Godrej Agrovet. It is india’s biggest Animal feed company with around 25% market share. It has recently opened a shrimp and fish feed plant in AP (remember our old horse Avanti feeds dealing in the same business). This business is growing very fast  and clocked around 2500 crores last year…this year I feel it will be around 3200 crore. Animal feed is going to be one of big business opportunity in india as demand for dairy and animal protein is rising very fast in india but production techniques are still old. Dairy production per cattle is almost six times in USA of india. Same is the case with fish feed which is yet to grow in india although poultry feed business is fairly developed but demand is outpacing supply very fast. This one business will add huge value to the company.

Godrej agrovet is also india’s largest producer of Palm oil with around 35000 acre palm oil plantations in india meeting vegetable oil demand of india. India is facing severe shortage of the vegetable oil and imports around 50000 crore worth of food oil. Oil palm contributed around 450 cr revenue last year but this year it will be around 600 cr business and one of the fastest growing.

GIL is betting big on farm inputs and seeds business which brings in revenues of around 450 cr…this year it will touch around 600 crores.  It deals in herbicides, plant growth simulaters, micronutrients, soil conditioners and is a reputed name in this line of business. It has divested its agri seeds units into Godrej Seeds & Genetics Limited. It will serve as its vehicle for entering the hybrid seed business in India. Godrej Seeds & Genetics Limited will focus its efforts on three major field crops-maize, paddy, and bajra. It has clocked turnover of 45 crore last year but this year it will be around 80 crores.

It is also having another businesses like fish feed JV with ACI in Bangladesh, Godrej Tyson foods for chicken processing, Nature Basket is the retail arm of the group. Godrej Tyson foods has made some inroads in making Indians aware of the branded chicken who likes to buy their chicken alive. But quality here is a big problem in india where due to no restrictions poultry farmers are feeding huge amounts of antibiotics and growth stimulators to their chickens in farms to raise the productivity but it is very dangerous for human body. So sooner we are going to see another revolution in Indian poultry industry of branded chicken and egg products. Venky’s india is another leading name in this race. Godrej Tyson foods has so far introduced Yummiez  and Real Good chicken brands in india and has received encouraging response so far. Tyson foods is the largest meat processer of USA. Turnover of the JV is around 400 cr and if focused properly can be one of the biggest surprise and success story due to in house capabilities in the fields of poultry feed.
Its retail arm nature’s basket is having 32 stores in big Indian metro cities with turnover around 200 crores. I am always skeptical of producers, Brand owners venturing into retail business…it is not their cup of tea. First of all Local Baniya is very hard to compete and then to understand and establish a retail model for Indian market where real estate is hugely overvalued is still a distant dream for Indian retailers.  If ever Online retail is going to beat offline retail in india in commercial terms, then costly real estate is going to play huge role.
Indian real estate is overvalued mainly due to presence of around 40% black money…real estate in india is a parking facility for black money. So I can’t say much about its retail business but I think it will be good if it exist it and invest that money in its domain of expertise.
In 2012, GIL sold 20% stake on Godrej agrovet to Singapore government-owned investment firm Temasek Holdings for 572 crores valuing it around 3000 crores and it should be valued around 5000 crore now.
Moreover GIL is looking to list Godrej Agrovet within one or two years. This will bring huge value to the company like it did when group listed Godrej Properties.
Godrej consumer products’ market value is around 33000 crores and GIL’s stake of 23% is valued around 7500 crores and its 60% stake in Godrej Properties is valued around 3000 crores which values both for around 10500 crores and after giving it 30% discount the same will be valued around 7500 crores. Now add around minimum of 2500 crores for 34 acre land in vikhroli and it will add into 10000 crore which equals the market value of GIL at current market price of 300/-
That means we are getting Godrej Agrovet free of cost, which itself is on a strong growth trajectory and with the huge growth even in Godrej Consumer products and Godrej Properties the value equation for GIL is only going to heading towards sky.
A great buy at CMP of 300/-
(Views are personal and should not be taken as a recommendation for buy or sell a stock. Stock markets are inherently risky so kindly do your Due Diligence before investing)

Monday 10 November 2014

Death-a contemplation-4th Part

This is 4th in the series. Read the first three at following links:

Death-a contemplation-1st

Death-a Contemplation-2nd

Death a contemplation-3rd

Some stocks worth Investing-KPIT Technologies, Radico Khaitan, Tata Coffee, Jain Irrigation,Tata Power

Radico Khaitan: Liquor…this is one sector which is going to witness huge activity going forward. First…we Indians don’t yet know what is really a whisky? What we drink in the name of whisky is nothing but neutral spirit extracted from molasses (By product of sugar) which is then blended with imported malt and grain scotch whiskies to get the flavor and colour of whisky. In india, they have given it a very funny name; Indian Made foreign Liquor (IMFL) which comprises Whisky, Beer, Vodka, Brandy, Rum etc. In foreign countries, Indian whisky gets the tag of rum as it is made from molasses and most of them find its taste terrible. Single malt or grain whiskies are like silk and these are enjoyed best neat without adding any soda/water/ice.

At present india has imposed huge import duties on imported scotch whiskies which inflated the cost of BIO (Bottled in Origin) whiskies by almost 3 to 4 times and BII (Bottled in india) by twice. This has protected the inefficient Indian liquor industry from high quality competitors. However there are some like Amrut distilleries from india whose single Malt whisky has been awarded as the world’s best twice which shocked the entire world. This prominently export oriented company has now started offering 1000 bottles in india also. Amrut is always in short supply globally. This shows with dedication and efforts Indian companies can give global brands a run for their money.

Scotch Whisky unions of Europe are eagerly waiting for india to sign the FTA agreement with European union which will force india to lower the high import duties on scotch whisky. Sooner or later india is going to sign the treaty. Whenever this will happen will prompt foreign companies to look for acquisitions in india to get hold of complex liquor distribution system of india where every state has its own set of rules with regard to wholesale and retail of liquor. Central and state level taxes are very high and these are stretched to the fullest by state governments to increase their revenues. Diageo has already done the same by acquiring USL. Secondly this will also make bulk imported whiskies cheaper for Indian companies for blending purpose which will raise their margins. It will also prompt them to focus on high quality grain based products in order to be competitive.

One more thing, in spite of global demand for whisky almost doubled in last 20 years or so, area under Barley (to make malt for scotch whisky) production has actually decreased during the period which is made up by rising production of barley per acre. Although barley produced in Scotland is best suited for scotch whisky but india can be a huge global supplier of Malt.

With this background, I feel it is worth risk taking to buy the Indian liquor stocks like Radico Khaitan/USL/Tilaknagar industries which are trading at multiyear lows. Radico CMP is around 88/-


KPIT Technologies: one of the very few of Indian IT companies focusing on product based growth model rather than linear growth model wherein more employees are added to get more generic orders mainly due to cost competitiveness like our IT behemoth Infosys. However now they are also trying to change their business model. KPIT is a research driven company focusing on strong IP creation. It provides services in the areas of Integrated Enterprise Solutions, SAP and automotive segment.

Today’s vehicles are more of electronic devices with more and more of vehicle is about semiconductor Chips where millions of written codes control the way our today’s high tech vehicles function. KPIT has developed many IP based automotive solutions in the areas of in vehicle networks, body electronics, engineering design, infotainment, powertrain etc. It has also developed a component REVOLO which will convert the vehicle into Hybrid vehicle running on Gas and electricity from Batteries. It has filed 17 patents for the system and has already received four. It comes with a set of batteries, software and an electric motor which can be charged from standard electricity source. Batteries are also charged through regenerative braking system wherein electric motor rotate during braking and in process batteries are charged. The system recognize the driving pattern and start stop the power source from batteries and fuel engine as per the requirement like waiting at traffic signal.

We may be having a vehicle of higher power and strength but during normal driving in cities such a high performance engine is not required…in these situations Revolo shuts down the engine and start the battery powered motor and thus increases the fuel efficiency. As per KPIT management, Revolo can increase the fuel efficiency by 60%-80%.

Company derives a major part of its revenues from Offshore Product Development which is also going to be a major development in IT sector. KPIT CMP is around 164/-

Jain Irrigation is one of the best pick for solving the problems of indian agriculture...of low water levels, higher fertilizer subsidy. Both can be saved by Micro Irrigation which results in saving almost 50-70% odf water and 30-40% of fertlizer savings along with raising productivity by 50-200% in various crops. 

Govt will ahve no ther option but to make it mandatory to have micro irrigation by giving subsidy. although savings from reduced power and fertlizer usage will be huge as compared to total outlay on subsidy on micro irrigation.High debt of Jain irrigation is adequately safeguarded by pending subsidies from various state governments...there can be delays but ultimately most of it will come to jain. 

Only 7% of indian Farmland is Micro orrigated against 55% of USA and 95% of Israel. So just imagine the scope of scale...Jain Irrigation is 2nd largest micro irrigation comapny in the world after Netafam of Israel. CMP is around 86/-

Tata Coffee: First of all, Coffee is not a bean as it is regarded and thought of…instead it is a seed of coffee fruit. Coffee is a unique experience both for coffee brewer and drinker. It provides huge scope for creativity in brewing a splendid coffee. India which was predominantly a tea nation is bouncing towards coffee…however our knowledge about coffee drinking is preliminary. The powdered coffee we buy from our nearby stores is made of Robusta coffee beans which is a cheaper version of coffee as compared to royal class Arabica. Robusta is more bitter, less flavored with more caffeine as compared to Arabica. 2/3rd of Indian coffee production is Robusta. Also powdered coffee is either heat dried or freeze dried with former reducing the flavor and aroma of coffee due to heat hence freeze dried derives premium valuation in the market. Coffee is the 2nd largest traded commodity globally after oil and derives a turnover of 100 billion dollars.

Tata coffee is india’s largest coffee producer with 19 estates in india covering around 25000 acres. It is also the biggest producer of cardamom in india which is produced along with coffee. It produces around 10000 MT of coffee…almost half of which is exported and half is used to make instant coffee in its plants in india which commands better valuations and insulated from variations in global coffee prices as india is not a big player in coffee.

It derives 600 cr from its operations in india. It is having Eight’o clock coffee of USA as its subsidiary which is a more than 100 years old brand of USA. Its turnover is around 1000 crore and acquired by Tata in 2006. Tata is planning to launch the same in india also. 

Now I think the bigger future valuation creator will be its focus on freeze dried instant coffee segment than selling raw coffee beans globally. Also with Tata Starbucks JV growing big in india will provide huge growth opportunities to tata coffee as the JV is procuring its coffee from Tata coffee. Starbucks also has plans to source the coffee for its global operation also from Tata coffee.

With Indian customers now waking up to the idea of coffee and coffee chains, Tata coffee can reap the benefit from the massive distribution clout of its Parent Tata Global for tata tea in india. It has just recently opened a new instant freeze dried coffee plant in india. CPM is around 920/-


Tata Power: indian power sector needs great reforms and improvements to meet the current   demand as well as future demand to meet our growth targets. mundra plant is the main drag   on its financials due to costly imported coal which i feel was the fault of management for not    being able to calculate the possible chances of any high rise in coal prices.

However with cerc allowing to pass on the cost of around 50 paise to power distribution companies, the good time may come. Moreover with global oversupply of gas due to shale boom,     USA becoming net exporter of oil/Gas, technological improvements in renewable power…oil,       coal prices are going to fall further and there will be opportunities to buy coal mines at low      prices in usa/canada which i think tata can buy.

Also its defense arm SED is the gem in the crown as it is having highly advanced capacities to produce high tech products for Indian army. Its current order book is around 2700 crores. it is   having most advanced missile testing center in India…also producing high-tech night vision         equipment, highly advanced mobile phones for army etc.

 it is investing big in renewable power and power transmission and distribution, and to over-      come the dependence on India it is creating power assets globally. India can’t survive without      improving   its power sector and i feel due to its superior management and great track record…it is the best play on power sector.

(Views are personal and should not be taken as a recommendation for buy or sell a stock. Stock markets are inherently risky so kindly do your Due Diligence before investing)

Wednesday 5 November 2014

Death a contemplation-3rd

This is the third post in the series. Kindly read the first two at the following links:

Death-a contemplation-1st

Death-a Contemplation-2nd


Why there is so much darkness here around everything? We, in spite of our desperate efforts to understand something of this process life, are just having huge numbers of opinions…of which we are sure of nothing. If life is for living for a purpose then why there is death? What is the purpose? Most of it… why this mystery is still unsolved? Why so much darkness? It seems that with our untiring efforts, we should have it solved if and only if someone is not putting the great efforts to hide the truth from us. Could that be our God? If not he then who is it? Or if in our present state of mind/consciousness it is not possible for us to conceive this mystery?

What are we and why we are? Am I just a collection of memories or my being, my persona…character is my reality?

I see someone assaulting the dignity of a girl in the lone street…if I have to save the girl; how the things will behave? Let’s see…I’ll try to save her and by doing this I’ll BECOME a Brave person or things actually are reverse…I’ll try to save her only because I am a BRAVE person. My brave nature will prompt me to act. My action will follow my nature…my innate nature will direct the flow of my actions, my action comes out of ME…they are just ME. It is not that- I AM what I DO…but I DO what I AM.

Second, in my bid to save her…whether I’ll first filter my memories to find out if I have done this before also? And if I hadn’t…I’ll not venture further into it or if I had done it earlier also then I’ll be happy to take the affair into my hands. But, in reality nothing of this sort happens…we never filter ourselves for action (but only for results)…because our actions are nothing…they are just demonstrations of ourselves…physical pronunciations of ourselves…our inner self…of what I am. Memories are irrelevant…even if I forget all my memories of bravery…but when facing a similar situation I’ll do the same action again…same type of memory is created…I’ll save the girl again. Memories don’t create me…I am the creator. Source matters not the extensions. So in order to be as it is as I am now…I don’t need any of my past memories. Erase all my memories and I’ll still remain. At the most I’ll lose the data…data regarding my parents, my love, friends…but processer is something else and it always remains.

So I save the girl and a memory is created in me…it is also created in that girl and culprit according to state of their mind. All of my memories reflect the different attributes of my being or my persona. Like my kindness if I donate, my being a true friend if I feel the pain of my friend. So different persons have different memories for one particular common event as all have different personas.
In nutshell, I will be the same person without my memories as my memories are direct outcomes of what I am. My past memories can’t affect my now time decision as they were created according to my state of being at that particular time and if I am a different person now then I’ll behave differently and so a different memory will be created.

That’s what death is. We die but we only loose our memories…nothing else. My persona, my being survives and we carry it as it is to our next life. Our journey of life never ends…we always start from where we left in our last attempt. We never start it from scratch as there is no logic in it. Life must be a phenomenon moving in circles; because when we take birth…can we say that that point was the beginning of ours? Can something emerge from nothing? Can it be possible that at one point there was nothing and the very next point we emerge? It happened only once when something emerged from nothing and that was our God…or the Beginning (My head bursts when I try to comprehend it).

Just look at your childhood…you can see that there are certain attributes of your character like bravery, kindness, fear, religiousness, music etc which you haven’t acquired in this life…these were part of you since your childhood…you were born with them…they just unveiled as you grow. You and your siblings are part of the same family…raised in same enviourment…but yet you are all very different by nature, have different views, aspirations…why? Because you are all just continuing your journey from where you left in your last life.

I remember something of my life…from early childhood days when I was around 5-6, I had a very strange liking for music…I still remember the strange feelings which I felt while listening to some songs played on radio which my father used to play…I felt very strange feelings of peace and mystery while listening to those songs. My love for music went on rising and I was enjoying music all the day while studying, doing gym, jogging, roaming…It was music everywhere. Then around age 23…i told one of my relative who was in music field that I wanted to learn music. He only laughed at me. I bought one small keyboard and my Aunt (Bua Ji) played for me the music of one song…I went on playing it for days…and all of a sudden I started playing some new tunes by myself…after that there was no looking back…I played very difficult compositions on my own…I even created some tunes on my own…now I can play any song that too without any formal training. I am sure that somewhere it has linked with my past life. Music must have been a very important part of my past life.

We grow as a person in our life…evolve, improve, change and then die…born again…and the evolvement process starts again. We never cease to exist. Lord Krishna has used the words “Marandharma” for Arjuna and “Mrityuloka” for earth in Geeta. Death is implied in our world…it is a part of being in here. If we extend the words of Lord…then there is no death for those living in other “Lokas”…these lokas may be those who are above earth (Material World) in hierarchy.

But we never go empty handed from here…Alexandra was wrong when near his death, he ordered to show his empty hands out of his coffin while going to graveyard to convey the message that even after having such a vast wealth accumulated by killing; he was going away empty. But he never went empty handed…before death he learnt the shallowness of wealth…he witnessed the bigger picture of life. He evolved in that life journey. We never come here empty handed nor we’ll go empty handed. Life is very generous…it makes sure to enrich us.

I don’t feel that our memories are stored in our physical brain because if they get stored in the brain, then with it our memories become a part of our physical existence. But our brain gets vanished, when we die…and so logically with the destruction of our brain, all our memories must also get destroyed. But literally all of our Rishis/Gurus say that they remember their past lives. However if our memories are physical phenomenon, then how our Gurus can claim that they remember their past lives? We have seen so many real life examples. Are our memories got stored in our soul?

But we all know scientifically that whenever someone gets his brain damaged accidentally, then he faces severe problems in recalling the past memories. So where really our memories are stored? And what should we take of the claims of our Gurus? But they don’t need to lie. So is there exists some sort of “cosmic memory” where all incidents are got stored and anyone can recall them after getting an access to this “cosmic memory”. I can’t say about it but I feel when we die…our memories start to fade out just like our dreams…when we wake up in the early morning…we can recall most part of our dream…but slowly into the day…we forget most of it. So when someone dies…for some time he remembers everything and if his attachments and unfulfilled desires are not strong then he starts to forget everything and moves out to start a new journey. But some with strong willpower can stay for long…we call them ghosts.

Here I remember something very important…some 10 years back…someone asked me how we change…transform. How a trembling person becomes a brave warrior? Like Angulimaal changed when he encountered Mahatma Buddha…from a ruthless killer he became a saint and preached Buddhism and Peace after that. At that time I couldn’t answer him…I myself didn’t have any experience in that. But life taught me some of the hardest lessons during this passage, mostly with a slap. We change, transform when we conceive, absorb, comprehend the truth in its purest form…wisdom, knowledge or Gyan transforms us. Like i am a big foodie…who can’t control his urge/greed for tasty food…so here I am always with full mouth, fatty, weak and ill. And then one day I think; I have eaten so much of tasty foods in my life till now…but where is that taste…that feeling now…it is nowhere in me, my mouth. And then cometh the realization that taste is illusion…unquenchable…and I find my greed for food falling. This is wisdom. Most of our fears are because of fear of death. One day someone like Lord Krishna comes to us and bring our soul out of our bodies…we see our bodies laying lifeless and realize that we are something more than bodies and we see our fears, timidness, jealousy, greed going away…we are transforming.

We are also on our journey…journey to the unknown. But see our children…our young people…they are not happy…although they are living…because someone else (parents) is choosing the aim of their lives…so they are confused…they are misrouted…as they are doing things which they never liked in their previous attempt. That was why astrology was invented; to know the journey of the child…to know what he can do best for him to feel greatest happiness.

Buddha saw an old man dying and he in one moment felt the impermanence of worldly matters or things…and so with that all wealth…most beautiful women, tasty food became useless for him and he left everything to start his journey towards reality…permanence.

We also know his story; we daily see people dying…but we never feel like Buddha…why???

Because he started where he left in his last birth. And we left our journey somewhere else…


Some stocks worth Investing-KPIT Technologies, Radico Khaitan, Tata Coffee, Gloster Jute, Godrej Industries, jain Irrigation, tata Power, venky's india

I can't post detailed studies on these stocks right now due to time constraint. but will post short analysis on these...


Monday 6 October 2014

Death a contemplation-3

This is third post in the series. Just couldn't finish it due to some reason. Read the first two at following links:

Death-a contemplation-1st

Death-a Contemplation-2

Friday 3 October 2014

Coromandel international-Standing tall on Fertile Grounds of Next Agriculture Revolution



(Coromandel was recommended in Aug at 245/- it is now at around 310/- but it is still a great buy)
 
Bodybuilders build their bodies following a nutritional regime that fulfills varying needs of their bodies. They take variety of foods which supplies them protein, Fat, carbs, essential minerals and vitamins…each of these has its role to play in maintaining a healthy disease free state.  They know that eggs will supply them high quality protein but for Omega-3 fatty acids-which play some of the most important roles in the body like lowering LDL cholesterol while raising HDL cholesterol, preventing bone loss etc-they have to take almonds, walnuts, fish etc. 

However one can find almonds, walnuts costly and may have to bypass it. But they will never take more eggs in place of almonds thinking eggs will fill the void.  Excess protein in the body will do more harm than benefit. 

But the same thing is happening in our country at a grand scale. Our farmers are supplying their farms with huge overdoses of Nitrogen fertilizer (Urea) as they can’t afford costly phosphorus and potassium. The result, high toxicity in soil, pollution of water reserves as excess nitrogen seep into water resources, wastage of money, high subsidy bill of more than 1 lac crore as urea is sold well below cost of production and international prices, falling yields ( our per hectare yield of rice is lower than bangladesh and pakistan, china produce twice and USA almost 10 time more than us), high inflation due to low yields…current high prices are a result of very low productivity inspite of having highest arable land relative to total land mass of the country, our food lacks essential minerals like phosphorus, zinc etc.

Situation is grave and prompt measures are required. Land just like our body needs a variety of nutrients to be in most fertile state. Normally land can recuperate any loss of nutrition in the soil…but due to present industry level farming where high yield hybrid seeds are used which absorb high amount nutrients from soil, gap between crops are very less giving very little time to land to rejuvenate itself. The result…heavy loss of essential minerals from top soil. Soil needs many of these nutrients like Nitrogen, Phosphorus, potassium, zinc, calcium, boron, iron etc. However Nitrogen, Phosphorus, potassium are most important and are called NPK. Each of these mineral has a different role to play like nitrogen promotes healthy body of the crop, they are building blocks of protein. Phosphorus is a major component in plant DNA and is also critical in root development, crop maturity and seed production, photosynthesis and energy/nutrient transport.

The role of potassium in the plant is indirect, meaning that it does not make up any plant part. Potassium is required for the activation of over 80 enzymes throughout the plant. It's important for a plant's ability to withstand extreme cold and hot temperatures, drought and pests. It increases the immunity of crop. It is just like the calcium absorption mechanism of our body…you can drink large amounts of milk but your body will not absorb the calcium unless vitamin D is present. 
So unless you go for sunshine for vitamin D, your bones will always be weak regardless of high intake of calcium.
Since Indian govt is offering huge subsidy on Urea so our farmers, who are illiterate and technically poor, thinks that every fertilizer is just a fertilizer. They don’t understand the intricacies of NPK. They can’t understand that soil will absorb Nitrogen only in the presence of Phosphorus and potassium. Ideal ratio of these two is around 4:2:1 and can vary slightly according to land. But our use is 20:6:1.

There is a reason for this…we produce Urea in the country which is enough for 85% of our needs…Gas is the preferred feed stock for Urea. But Phosphorus is very scarce in india…producing just 15% of needs. Morocco and china are the biggest producer of phosphorus. It is produced or actually mined from phosphoric rocks. Literally every country in the world is dependent upon almost 100% import of phosphorus but unlike nitrogen phosphorus is in limited supply in the form of phosphoric rocks. Hence unless we find out more resources or an equal substitute, our food security is in grave danger. Infact this problem is bigger than Global warming because in the later, the solution is in our hands in the form of reduced discharge of green house gases…but for phosphorus not much is in our hands.

We can only conserve or better use it. However studies have shown that human Urine contains all three of NPK and if we use it in our fields we can supply almost 40-50% of our fertilizer needs. In fact china is still using it in its fields. In india also, in old times people would go to farms for nature’s call and it is still present in some of our villages. 

Same is true for potassium also called Potash. The name derives from "pot ash", which refers to plant ashes soaked in water in a pot, the primary means of manufacturing the product before the industrial era. Earlier wood/plant stocks were burnt and their “ashes” were used to produce Potash. All commercial potash deposits come originally from marine deposits and are often buried deep in the earth. For deep potash deposits hot water is injected into the potash which is dissolved and then pumped to the surface. 

In india urea is heavily subsidized, but subsidy for Phosphorus and Potash is fixed as per NBS scheme. Hence producers of P and K have to raise the prices relative to rise in international prices as their cost increases. Also the prices of phosphorus have risen by almost 8 times in last 5-6 years or so. After NBS prices of phosphorus have increased from Rs. 9300/- per tonne to 26000/- per tonne while prices of urea are stable due to high variable subsidy. Hence this leads to the indiscriminate use of urea.

In the state of Haryana, farmers used 32 times more nitrogen than potassium in the fiscal year ended March 2009, much more than the recommended 4-to-1 ratio. In Punjab, they used 24 times more nitrogen than potassium. These costs are ultimately paid by the consumers as higher food prices and higher taxes, in return for a zero or negative impact upon agricultural output.

The government has not revised the prices of urea and there was no increase in MRP in the last few years. The price of urea in India is $85 a tonne while it is in the range of $350 in China; $350-400 in Pakistan and $250 in Bangladesh without subsidies. International prices are around $500. Also in order to make maximum out of flawed subsidy policy, companies produces fertilizers which contains excess quantities of subsidized nutrient. Like Urea contains 46% nitrogen. Such high concentrations are not needed and so only a third of the nitrogen in urea gets used. The rest leaches into groundwater or escapes into the atmosphere. It is a complete waste of money and resources.

So next revolution in Indian agriculture will be of efficient use of fertilizer. Govt is planning to raise the urea prices to make farmer use it wisely and to use other nutrients like PK also. Direct cash subsidy transfer on the basis of per acre land can bring huge benefits.

RBI is fighting the battle with high inflation for a long time by keeping the interest rates high but with no success…it is just like fighting water with sword. Hence time has come to ignite this new revolution or else we all will fight or beg for food.

Coromandel international is finding itself at the forefront to lead this revolution. It is the second largest phosphatic fertilizer and complex fertilizer player. Its plants are located at Visakhapatnam & Kakinada in Andhra Pradesh and Ennore & Ranipet at Tamil Nadu. 

The range of products from Coromandel is popularly known by the brand GROMOR.  it is the lowest cost manufacturer of phosphatic fertilizers in India due to partial backward integration and ownership of logistics/support infrastructure. It manufactures phosphoric acid from rock phosphate (25% of its requirement) at its Vizag facility from its captive mines. As all its plants are located along the coast, it is able to save on the cost of inland transportation of imported raw material. Its plants are also close to fertilizer target markets, which help to reduce the cost of transporting finished goods.

As India has limited phosphorus reserves, the complex fertilizer industry has to rely on imports. CRIN has entered into a number of strategic agreements to ensure assured supply of raw material. It sources only ~15% of its requirement from open markets; 25% comes from its captive capacity at Vizag and ~60% from strategic tie-ups. 

CRIN has a technical assistance agreement with Foskor (South Africa), one of the world’s largest phosphoric acid producers, and holds 14% of its equity. It has invested ~USD29m for 15% equity stake in Tunisian Indian Fertilizers Company (TIFERT), a JV between Groupe Chimique Tunisien (GCT) and CPG of Tunisia (Both Govt enterprises of Tunisia), and GSFC of India ( also having 15% share), to set up a phosphoric acid plant at La Skhira in Tunisia.
The management has indicated that most future raw material supplies will come from overseas tie-ups.

CRIN has a capacity of 4m tonnes for P&K fertilizers and with production around 2.3 MT capacity utilization is around 60%. Performance of Coromandel in last 2 years was not that good…that was mainly due to low demand for P&K fertilizers due to high prices because of NBS subsidy scheme by the Govt, high imported raw material cost because of fall in rupee, imports of cheap Chinese fertlizers , falling fuel supplies and subsidy delays, leading to inventory pileups and pressure on finances .

I am not counting the growth prospectus for coromandel on the basis of high fertilizer prices, low raw material prices, stable rupee etc. as stability of these depends upon so many factors as global market is big and complex but Instead I am bent on more justified usage of PK fertilizers in india which at present is hell bent on N or urea. This justified demand will be more stable and more local and will create demand for PK twice or thrice of levels at present.

Coromandel is an Indian agricultural behemoth with turnover of 10000/- crores with majority of turnover coming from subsidy based business whether in the form of urea or PK fertilizers. Hence in order to come out of this subsidy dependence, it is focusing big time on non subsidized businesses. It has acquired in recent times Liberty Phosphate - one of biggest single super phosphate producer in india and Sabereo  organics -a producer of generic agro chemicals products like fungicides, herbicides, insecticides and specialty chemicals has global operations across three continents of Europe, Latin America and Australia besides a manufacturing facility in Gujarat, and boasts of about 240 product registrations internationally for key products. Half of its turnover comes from exports. It clocked turnover of around 700 cr in 2013-14 with NP of 33 cr.

Crop protection products usage in india is very low and our crops are subject to attacks of numerous pests and weeds. So this will prove a great business potential for Coromandel as it can market Sabero’s products to its markets.
Liberty phosphate manufactures single super phosphate or SSP which is obtained through a chemical reaction between rock phosphate and sulphuric and is a cheaper alternative to the popular diammonium phosphate (DAP). It helps treat sulphur deficiency in soil and enhances yield of crops such as oil seeds, pulses, sugarcane, fruits and vegetables. 

Liberty group is amongst India’s largest manufacturer of powdered and granulated SSP with around 14% market share and this acquisition will expands product portfolio of the company. SSP with higher indigenous raw material content provides a hedge against foreign exchange fluctuation. Indian soil is very deficient of Sulphur due to heavy and indiscriminate use of urea which was very heavily subsidized. Consequently the productivity level is much below in India. In Egypt more than 90% fertilizer used is SSP & the productivity level is 3 times that of India. Being located in Udaipur gives it natural advantage of being in close proximity to Rock Phosphate & sulphuric Acid (the waste product of HZL). DAP costs more than three times that of single super phosphate. 

SSP improves the use efficiency of other essential plant nutrients, particularly nitrogen and phosphorus. Sulphur is necessary for plant growth and nutrition. S has been found to increase crop productivity from 14% to 72% in different crops and states.
More sulphur is removed from the soil as a result of an increase in agricultural production by increasing fertilizer use, intensifying cropping systems, high-yield crop varieties but less sulphur is added to the soil due to increasing use of sulphur-free fertilizers, such as urea, diammonium phosphate (DAP), and potassium.

Actually SSP is the cheapest source of phosphorus, it is the sole carrier of sulphur, a micro-nutrient which is deficient in about 40 per cent of Indian soils.

Sulphur is deemed essential for optimum plant growth and yield of oilseeds and pulses, both of which are in short supply and are imported in large quantities to meet the domestic demand.

Actually every soil is unique just like humans and so rigid fertilizer compositions will not suffice. Some of our soils are more deficient in sulphur, so applying DAP will not serve the purpose as DAP is having 46% phosphorus against 16% of SSP. So SSP supplies balance nutrition to soil in the form of sulphur and phosphorus that too at lower cost.

In the form of SSP, the farmer gets P at lower rate. Soil will get the much desired S. Productivity will improve due to use of S. Government benefits due to lower subsidy bill as till now the farmer was using P in excess of his requirement as DAP had much higher P than what was required. Now the farmer will take SSP, which gives lower P but in the right dose.
Moreover, DAP has to be imported, involving outgo of forex, which will be saved. Local manufacture of SSP will create employment.

Presently the price of Urea is Rs. 5.3/kg while that of SSP is Rs. 7.0/kg and DAP Rs.24/kg. While the difference between urea and SSP does not seem too large, that between SSP and DAP is wide enough. Hence to restore soil quality, the farmer will be willing to buy SSP (slightly expensive compared to urea – but far cheaper than DAP). If Urea prices are decontrolled, they are likely to become higher than those of SSP and farmers would consider shifting to SSP even more to enhance the quality of their land. The fertilizer ministry is likely to send the new urea policy proposing a hike in prices.

I think urea price hike or full/partial decontrol shouldn’t delay any further. This is also because of reasons other than over usage of urea like  the inordinately low prices of urea (it is now cheaper than common salt) have led to this manufactured product being diverted to other industrial and commercial uses but most of times for illegal uses. Urea is being used to adulterate milk, which is very harmful for our health. There have even been reports of the inexpensive and freely available urea being used by anti-national elements to fashion home-made explosives.

Prices of urea in neighbouring nations like Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh etc. are thrice that of india. Prices in USA are almost five times. Hence this price differential encourages smuggling of urea into countries such as Nepal and Bangladesh. The quantity of urea diverted into such unauthorized uses could stand at 5-6 million tonnes, a fifth of domestic consumption. 

This acquisition of Liberty Phosphate is a very smart move by the company. With it, it has added 10 lakh tonnes of SSP capacity. This also allows the Company to offer low P fertilizer to the farming community in the core SSP markets – Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP and UP.

Actually Indian fertilizer sector is a prime example of something where everything from conceptualization to resource planning and allocation has gone awry. It has been subjected to hit and trial approach mainly by those who understand nothing of agriculture ecology and economy but politics. Let’s try to comprehend it…

In the 1970’s when prices of fertilizers skyrocketed, government in a bid to provide farmers these at cheaper rates and to promote investment in the sector introduced Retention Price Scheme (RPS). Under this Govt fixes the selling price of fertilizer and also the Retention price of the producer. The difference between the higher retention price for the producer and the lower selling prices are paid to the producers by the government in the form of subsidies. Retention price was based on covering the variable cost and fixed costs and giving a post tax return of 12% on the networth. The retention price paid varies between plant to plant and depends on the feedstock used (whether naphtha, fuel oil, gas or coal) and takes into account the conversion costs, selling costs, interest on debt, depreciation and capacity utilization of 90% of the plant.

Hence anybody who understand the working of Indian companies can understand that companies at that time over state their capital cost and under rated their plant capacities (to get higher working utilizations).

And when subsidies got out of the roof for the government it brought out a new snake. Urea left controlled (and it still is) and Government provided fixed subsidies on other fertilizers Products not on fertilizers itself. Like it provided fixed (which is changed when needed) subsidy on DAP ( Phosphatic fertilizer) MOP (Potassium) and SSP (although subsidy amount was very less as compared to DAP as Govt ignored its sulphur content).

Hence farmer had very little choice of fertilizer and opted for those subsidized. This has led to comparatively higher usage of straight fertilizers (like urea, dap, mop) than complex fertilizers which agronomically are better products as they provide balance nutrition to the soil and are available in suitable customized forms. But even than subsidy quantum remained high.

And then to counter this Government in 2010 invented Nutrient based Subsidy scheme, NBS, which aims at providing subsidies to various products on the basis of their content ( Like N, P, K, S) not on the basis of product itself. This had the potential to promote the usage of complex fertilizers but here again Govt kept urea under control.

And when prices of DAP, MOP etc rose in international market, these and other complex fertilizers became costly for farmers and so they preferred urea over everything thinking it would care for everything which sadly and naturally it can’t.

As earlier there was no subsidy for sulphur in SSP, so SSP was costlier than DAP (per unit of Phosphorus, as DAP has 3 times more P than SSP) hence SSP was ignored by farmers. But equation has tilted in favour of SSP after NBS recognized the need of Sulphur for Indian soil. Hence I strongly feel that demand of sulphur will grow manifold in the future. At present only 6% of SSP is used of total phosphatic fertilizer used. This ratio is 93% in Egypt which grows almost thrice of per acre productivity of india of pulses, cereals and paddy.

So now there is no option left for government but to decontrol urea to clean all this nuisance. Coromandel will be the biggest beneficiary of this.

 It is also focusing big on its specialty nutrients business which deals with other micronutrients than NPKS (these are macro) like Zinc, Boron, calcium, iron etc. these are called micro not because these are not that much essential but because these are required in small quantities. But they are equally important as they perform different roles in plant growth just like vitamin A or E for humans. Coromandel is working on introducing newer products in this segment as sooner govt and farmer will shift its focus on micro nutrients also.

It also has big plans for rural retail. it operates around 700 rural retail stores under the names of Mana Gromor and Namma Gromor  in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, through which it markets its products and other products directly to the farmers. Somehow no one so far has succeeded in tasting the win in rural retail. DCM shriram tried through Hariyali kisan bazaar in a big way and then after huge losses closed them.

ITC through its Choupal Saagar and Godrej through Aadhar also tried but with no success.
It is because dynamics of retail in rural india are entirely different from urban. Indian companies are even finding difficult to succeed in urbal retail let alone rural. Poor infrastructure, high overhead costs, scale etc are some of the main hurdles. But most of all…it is very difficult to beat local Banya. Moreover organized rural retail should think beyond offering consumption based business. Their stores can be a source of income for farmers like they can buy products from farmers like vegetables, milk, handlooms, handicraft etc to boost their incomes so that they can spend that extra money in their stores.

Or they can offer products which aren’t available to them now through local Banya and which can boost their incomes like micronutrients after making them aware of its benefits, farm automation and mechanism products as farm automation is very low in india. Coromandel has tried for this by entering into a joint venture with Japanese companies, Yanmar & Co and Mitsui Trading, for manufacturing and marketing farm machinery. Coromandel and Yanmar will hold 40 per cent each and Mitsui 20 per cent in the joint venture, which will initially manufacture the Yanmar brand of mini-harvesters, planters and rotavators for paddy cultivation. The joint venture will later expand its range to include equipment for other crops, including sugarcane and vegetables.

Right now I can’t say anything about its retail venture as I am yet to study its model fully. But its main business and other non subsidy based business are poised for a strong growth.
Coromandel is a concept stock and its extraordinary success will depend upon the elimination of policy bottlenecks.

Prices of other SSP fertilizers producers like Rama Phosphates and Khaitan chemicals are also at multi year lows. They can also be a good option but they are yet to be studied. Rallis india (earlier recommended at 110 is at 230) can also be a great buy.

(Views are personal and should not be taken as a recommendation for buy or sell a stock. Stock markets are inherently risky so kindly do your Due Diligence before investing)